Breadfruit Cultivation Offers Hope to Combat Global Food Insecurity

The world is facing a severe food crisis. In 2022, nearly 10% of the global population struggled with hunger, a problem worsened by climate change, conflicts, and economic instability. Climate change—defined as long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns caused by human activities like burning fossil fuels—is disrupting farming in tropical and subtropical regions.

These regions, home to most of the world’s undernourished people, rely heavily on staple crops like rice, wheat, and maize. However, studies predict yields of these crops could drop by 5–25% by 2050 due to rising temperatures, droughts, and unpredictable rainfall.

In this urgent context, a study published in PLOS Climate (August 2022) highlights an overlooked solution: breadfruit (Artocarpus altilis). Breadfruit, a nutrient-rich tropical crop native to Pacific Islands, could help millions adapt to climate change while improving food security (russiaukraine).

Researchers from Northwestern University and the Chicago Botanic Garden used advanced climate models to map where breadfruit can grow today and in the future. Their findings reveal that breadfruit is not only resilient but also capable of thriving in regions most affected by hunger.

Breadfruit Benefits: Nutrition and Environmental Impact

Breadfruit is a large, starchy fruit that grows on trees in warm climates. For thousands of years, it has been a staple food in Pacific Island communities, where it is roasted, boiled, or turned into flour. The term staple food refers to a dietary backbone that provides the majority of calories and nutrients for a population.

Beyond its versatility, breadfruit is packed with nutrients. A single fruit can feed a family of five, providing carbohydrates, protein, fiber, and essential vitamins like vitamin C and potassium.

Compared to rice or wheat, breadfruit offers a more balanced diet, making it a “superfood”—a nutrient-dense food with significant health benefits—for regions with limited access to diverse foods.

What makes breadfruit particularly valuable is its ability to withstand harsh climates. Mature trees survive droughts—prolonged periods of abnormally low rainfall—lasting three to four months, tolerate heavy rains, and grow in poor soil.

Unlike annual crops that need replanting every year, breadfruit trees produce food for over 50 years, reducing labor and costs for farmers.

Additionally, these trees absorb carbon dioxide through carbon sequestration—the process of capturing and storing atmospheric carbon to mitigate climate change—improve soil health, and can be grown alongside other plants in agroforestry systems.

Agroforestry refers to a land-use system that integrates trees with crops or livestock, enhancing biodiversity and sustainability. This approach not only boosts biodiversity but also provides farmers with multiple income sources.

Predicting Breadfruit Growth with Climate Models

To understand where breadfruit can grow, researchers combined two types of data: climate patterns and breadfruit location records. First, they gathered information from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF)—a global database that aggregates biodiversity data from museums, herbaria, and citizen scientists.

They carefully filtered this data to remove errors, such as misidentified species or incorrect locations, ending up with 431 reliable records. Next, they analyzed bioclimatic variables—climate factors critical to species survival, such as temperature ranges and rainfall.

The team focused on seven key variables from the WorldClim database, a repository of high-resolution global climate data. These included:

1. Annual Temperature Range (BIO7): The difference between the maximum temperature of the warmest month and the minimum temperature of the coldest month.
2. Mean Diurnal Range (BIO2): The average difference between daily high and low temperatures.
3. Annual Precipitation (BIO12): Total rainfall in a year.

Using a tool called species distribution modeling (SDM)—a statistical method that predicts where a species can live based on environmental conditions—they mapped breadfruit’s potential range.

The team tested six different SDM algorithms, including Random Forest (a machine-learning method that uses decision trees) and MAXENT (a model that estimates species distributions by finding the most spread-out distribution possible). These models were combined into an ensemble—a technique that averages predictions from multiple models to improve accuracy.

Finally, they projected these findings into the future using global climate models (GCMs)—complex computer simulations that predict how Earth’s climate will change.

The study used eight GCMs from CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), a global collaboration that provides standardized climate data for research. The projections considered two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)—scenarios that describe how society, demographics, and emissions might evolve:

1. SSP2-4.5: A moderate pathway where emissions peak around 2050, leading to 2.4–2.8°C warming by 2100.
2. SSP5-8.5: A high-emissions pathway with continued fossil fuel use, resulting in 4.4°C warming.

By combining these steps, the researchers created detailed maps showing where breadfruit could thrive—or struggle—in the coming decades.

Breadfruit Cultivation Hotspots Worldwide

The study found that breadfruit currently has the potential to grow across 26.7 million square kilometers of the tropics and subtropics. This area includes three major regions:

1. Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands
This region is breadfruit’s traditional home, where it has been cultivated for over 3,000 years. About 80% of the land here—3.6 million square kilometers—is suitable for cultivation.

Countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Hawaii have ideal climates, with consistent rainfall and warm temperatures year-round. In these areas, 77% of suitable land is classified as “Good”—a term meaning the climate supports consistent, high-quality yields.

2. Latin America and the Caribbean
Breadfruit was introduced to this region in the 18th century and remains popular in countries like Jamaica and Brazil. Today, 51% of the region’s land (11.7 million square kilometers) is suitable for cultivation.

However, only 41% of this area is considered “Good” due to seasonal droughts—dry periods that recur annually, often during specific months. For example, Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula faces water shortages during the warmest quarter of the year, stressing crops.

3. Sub-Saharan Africa
Despite having 6.2 million square kilometers of suitable land—20% of the continent—breadfruit is rarely grown in Africa. Countries like Uganda, Ghana, and Kenya have ideal climates but lack awareness and infrastructure to scale cultivation.

This represents a major missed opportunity, as Africa faces some of the highest rates of food insecurity—a condition where people lack reliable access to affordable, nutritious food.

Climate Change Shifts Breadfruit Growing Zones

By 2080, climate change will reshape where breadfruit can grow. While the total suitable area will shrink by 4–5%, some regions will gain new opportunities:

Southeast Asia and the Pacific
Here, breadfruit’s range could expand by 0.7–4%, depending on emissions. Warmer winters may allow farmers to grow the crop in new areas, such as southern China and India.

However, rising temperatures will reduce yield quality—the nutritional value and quantity of harvested fruit—by 3–9%, meaning farmers might harvest smaller or less nutritious fruit.

Latin America and the Caribbean
This region faces the steepest declines, losing 10–12% of its suitable land.

Areas at risk include Brazil’s Mato Grosso Plateau—a highland region with savannah ecosystems—and parts of Central America, where droughts are projected to intensify. Caribbean islands, while less affected, will see a 50–70% drop in high-quality growing zones.

Sub-Saharan Africa
Africa offers hope. While southern regions may lose some land to rising heat, new areas in Ethiopia and Sudan could become suitable.

Even with a 3% reduction in total area, the continent still has enough land to support widespread breadfruit farming—a critical advantage for countries battling hunger. The study identified three climate factors as most important for breadfruit:

1. Annual Temperature Range (BIO7): Breadfruit thrives where the difference between the warmest and coldest months is less than 15°C. Regions with extreme seasonal shifts, like parts of India, are less suitable.
2. Mean Diurnal Range (BIO2): Moderate day-night temperature changes (5–10°C) are ideal, which is why coastal areas often perform well.
3. Annual Precipitation (BIO12): Breadfruit needs 1,500–4,000 mm of rain annually but can survive dry spells once established.

Under high emissions, rising temperatures will push breadfruit’s range toward higher elevations—mountainous areas cooler than lowlands—and latitudes. However, increased drought frequency in regions like Central America could offset these gains.

Breadfruit vs Rice, Maize: Resilience Compared

Breadfruit outperforms many staples in resilience. For example, rice yields drop sharply above 35°C, but breadfruit tolerates temperatures up to 38°C. Similarly, while maize struggles after two months without rain, mature breadfruit trees withstand three to four months of drought.

Economically, breadfruit also has advantages: producing one ton requires 80% less water and emits far fewer greenhouse gases—gases like carbon dioxide that trap heat in the atmosphere—than rice or wheat.

Despite its potential, breadfruit faces hurdles. Many farmers stick to familiar crops like maize, and breadfruit’s long growth period—3–5 years to first harvest—discourages investment. Additionally, poor infrastructure in regions like Africa limits access to processing tools, such as mills to turn the fruit into flour.

Extreme weather—severe or unusual events like cyclones or heatwaves—poses another risk. While the study focused on long-term climate trends, sudden disasters common in the Pacific could destroy orchards.

Finally, limited research on pest control—methods to manage insects or diseases—and high-yield varieties for Africa leaves farmers unprepared for challenges. Furthermore, to unlock breadfruit’s potential, governments and organizations must act:

• Funding and Education: Subsidize seedlings and teach farmers about breadfruit’s benefits.
• Agroforestry Programs: Promote mixed farming systems to diversify income and improve sustainability.
• Research: Invest in drought-resistant varieties—crops bred or engineered to survive dry conditions—and pest management techniques.

Successful examples already exist. In Jamaica, the Trees That Feed Foundation—a nonprofit promoting breadfruit cultivation—helped farmers plant trees, leading to yields of 150–200 fruits per tree annually. Participants earned $500–$1,000 yearly by selling surplus fruit, demonstrating the crop’s economic potential.

Conclusion

Breadfruit is more than a crop—it’s a lifeline for a warming planet. As the study’s lead author, Lucy Yang, notes: *“Our models show breadfruit can persist in 90% of its current range even under high emissions, making it a rare ‘win-win’ solution for hunger and climate adaptation.”*

To turn this potential into reality, collaboration is key. Policymakers must prioritize breadfruit in climate adaptation strategies—plans to adjust to climate impacts—farmers need training and resources, and researchers should focus on closing knowledge gaps. By working together, we can transform breadfruit from a neglected crop into a global ally against hunger.