The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture has revised its forecast for Pakistan’s wheat sector, increasing production estimates and lowering import projections.
Based on newly released government figures, the 2025-26 wheat production forecast has been raised by 500,000 tonnes compared to the previous quarter, bringing the total to 29 million tonnes.
However, this remains significantly lower than the record 31.8 million tonnes harvested last year.
According to the FAS, the year-over-year decline in output stems primarily from a 5.5% reduction in planted area. Farmers scaled back due to the absence of a government-guaranteed support price and expectations of weak market prices.
Compounding the issue, high temperatures during sowing and a prolonged dry spell afterward led to a 3.3% drop in yields, the report noted.
Despite widespread opposition from farmers and agricultural groups, the Pakistani government continues to abstain from intervening in the wheat market.
For the first time in decades, authorities did not announce in advance whether they would procure domestically produced wheat in 2025 or set a minimum support price.
Traditionally, this price floor is declared before planting begins to encourage wheat cultivation and provide income security to farmers at harvest time.
While growers remain frustrated, consumers have benefited from falling wheat prices, which have led to a 10% decline in wheat flour costs between June 2024 and May 2025, according to FAS data.
With the higher production and increased carryover stocks, the 2025-26 wheat import forecast has been cut by half to 1 million tonnes.
For comparison, only 100,000 tonnes were imported in 2024-25, largely due to last year’s bumper crop and a government-imposed import ban.
Key Terms and Concepts
What is the Minimum Support Price (MSP) and why was its absence in 2025 significant?
The Minimum Support Price is a pre-season rate announced by the government to ensure farmers receive a guaranteed return for their crop. In 2025, the government chose not to announce an MSP for wheat before planting, which led to reduced wheat cultivation. This decision created uncertainty among farmers and discouraged investment in the crop.
What is the government procurement policy for wheat in 2025?
In 2025, the Pakistani government adopted a non-procurement stance, meaning it did not commit to buying wheat from farmers at a fixed price. This shift marked a break from past policies where the government played a major role in stabilizing the market. Farmers were left to sell at fluctuating market rates, affecting income security.
How did climate conditions affect wheat yields in 2025?
Extreme weather in early 2025—including high temperatures during sowing and a prolonged dry spell—negatively impacted wheat yields. The average productivity per hectare fell by 3.3%. This shows how increasingly unpredictable climate conditions are now a major risk factor for food security in Pakistan.
How have wheat flour prices changed from 2024 to 2025?
Between June 2024 and May 2025, wheat flour prices fell by 10%, benefiting consumers amid high food inflation. However, this price drop came at the expense of farmers, who received lower prices due to weak market demand and no government price support. The result is a growing tension between producer and consumer interests.
What are farmer organizations demanding in 2025?
Farmer unions in 2025 are calling for the reinstatement of a government support price and clear procurement policies. They argue that without such safeguards, small and medium-scale farmers cannot survive in a volatile market. Despite widespread protests, the government has not reversed its policy stance.
Why is wheat import policy relevant in 2025–26?
With domestic production revised upward and carryover stocks still high, the government halved the wheat import forecast for 2025–26 to just 1 million tonnes. This suggests a reduced reliance on global markets, which may help manage trade balances, but also increases pressure on local farmers to absorb any market shocks.
